Saudi Arabia Impact Assessment

The attacks on the Abqaiq processing facility and the Khurais onshore field removed an estimated 34 mln bbls from the market in September.

We estimate Saudi crude production for the full month at 8,653 kbd, which equates to a MoM impact of 1,136 kbd or around 34 mln bbls as a result of the recent attacks.

Key takeaways:

  • We estimate Saudi Arabia’s September crude production was 8,653 kbd which equates to a MoM impact of1,136 kbd or around 34 mln bbls as a result of the recent attacks
  • Saudi Arabia has buffered some of this loss by drawing down domestic inventories by 10 mln bbls and reducing refinery throughput, and very likely by tapping their refined products SPR
  • Production is reported to be near pre-attack levels in the last few days, but what remains unclear is the quality of the restored output. We notice a confusion in media reports on ‘production capacity’ vs ‘processing capacity’,two different things
  • Storage on the west coast at the Al Muajjiz terminal supports the idea of production returning as it has shown a small storage build over the weekend(what remains to be seen is if this is on spec material)

Photo by Planet Labs, Inc.